Thursday, December 07, 2006

Thoughts about RF for next season

There has been a lot of blame levied at Shawn Green, and a lot of Mets fans don't think he is the answer in RF next season. Some of us have even advocated waiving Green and eating his entire salary. Some have thought that Green should be traded in a straight salary dump so we don't have to pay his whole salary while getting a roster spot back.

The facts are clear. The Mets have 4 other outfielders who I project to play better than Green next season.

Carlos Beltran, of course, Moises Alou(even in a 100 games or so), Endy Chavez(who will put up great defensive numbers), and even Ben Johnson.
The problem with Green is that if he used to use performance enhancing drugs, he stopped using them. It's also might be that he's older, but he's nosedived since 2002, 2003 was his Age 30 season, not necessarily in his prime, but certainly within the time frame of the usual prime for a positional player.

With his rapidly declining defensive skills, and his bat going the way of the 10 Lost Tribes, Shawn Green has lost his right to command a starting spot in most starting lineups, especially one as good as the Mets'.

With his negative defensive values, and his league average bat, he's no longer a fit for the Mets, especially in a starting role.

Thankfully, Willie Randolph isn't handing the starting job right to Green, and surprisingly he's looking at Lastings Milledge to fight Green for the job at Spring Training. It's a refreshing tactic in this day and age when a manager might actually give the job to whoever the best player is instead of giving it to the established guy.

There are two ways to look at this, one that Willie is making these comments as a tactic to dispel the rumors that the Mets have come to believe Lastings won't be a star, and therefore the comments pronounce Lastings won't come cheap and has a place in the Mets future. The second, is that he legitimately wants to give Lastings a real chance to win the job and consign Green to the bench, or another team.

The fact of the matter is that RF is the only question mark for the Mets, the only position where the player currently projected to start is going to perform under league average or right around it.

For most teams, that's acceptable, having a weak link. Maybe for the Royals or the Pirates, but not for the Mets, especially when he hits .257/.327/.440 lifetime (.767 OPS) against lefties. Especially playing a position that requires a strong arm(which he lacks) and less than adequate range.

So no matter how nice Green is, he's not a righty, he can't hit for the power that he needs to play a corner OF slot, and he doesn't have range.

No one is saying he's a terrible player. He's just not good enough to start for the Mets and there's nothing personal about it. People look to his postseason performance as an indicator to give him a job for next year. Nothing could prove that he doesn't deserve the job more.

He hit .313/.405/.406 in the playoffs. He had three extra base hits. So, 7/10 hits were singles. All together, it means he hit singles and he walked. Which is great, except the fact that he's a corner outfielder. We need power from that position, and an OPS not around 800, if we're getting subpar defense.

So respect the possibility that the Mets would be stronger without Green than with him.

Addition, by subtraction, by addition(of Ben Johnson.)

Something that amused me greatly.

Tom O'Brien left Boston College to become the head football coach at North Carolina State, replacing the departing Chuck D'Amato.

It's never a good sign for a new hire for your school when his former school's fanbase is happy to see you go.

Fire Tob!

Not only did they have their own website, they couldn't even spring for firetomobrien.com

Somewhere some guy named Tob is fearing for his job.

Note: I am exceptionally pleased with the "Mission Accomplished!" banner on the site.

Monday, November 27, 2006

Beltran wins NL Win Shares, wins nothing but my heart.

Forgot to Mention, but Beltran won Win Shares, and finished fourth.

I'm still pissed about that.

And how the hell did Justin Morneau win MVP? He was the third best player on his own team.

He was a run producer, all right, driving in RBIs and leading the team in HRs, but Mauer hit better...AS A CATCHER.

Mauer hit .360!! with RISP.

Monday, November 20, 2006

If I want an MVP award, I'll have to be second best in the best player contest

Or 5th, or 6th best.

So Ryan Howard won the NL MVP beating out Albert Pujols, and somehow Lance Berkman beat out Carlos Beltran for third.

Player A. BA .331 OBP .431 SLUG .671 OPS 1.102 49 HR 137 RBI
83 XBH VORP: 85.4
Player B. BA .313 OBP .425 SLUG .659 OPS 1.084 58 HR 149 RBI
84 XBH VORP: 81.5

Player A: 12.9 WARP3
Player B: 9.4 WARP3

You look at every statistic and something stands out. Player A is superior to Player B, ending up with 9 less HRs, 12 less RBIs, and dominating every other statistic. Hell, even 9 HR down, he ended up with only one less XBH.

He also did it in 70 less plate appearances.

Did I mention Player A's team barely made the playoffs, due to him carrying the team, where Player B's team batted the 14th best position player ahead of him(which led to significantly more RBI chances) but still didn't lead his team to the playoffs?

Did I mention Player A had 131 less strikeouts?

Did I mention Player A hit .397 with RISP, while Player B hit .256 with RISP.

Well now let's name our players. Player B, of course, is Ryan Howard, the winner *gag* of the NL MVP. Player A, is Albert Pujols, the superior player in just about every way, besides HRs and RBIs.

Saturday, November 18, 2006

Parental Control? Who lets their mom pick their dates?

So there is this show, called Parental Control, where the parents think the boyfriend/girlfriend of their son/daughter is worthless, and needs to go. So each parent gets to choose one guy for their daughter to go on dates with. The parents watch the dates with the SO of their daughter, and then after going on both dates, the daughter chooses between staying with her boyfriend, or choosing one of the two new guys.

It's a weird show, you have a relationship with someone...but you're going on dates with other people. It seems to me like I would just dump my girlfriend if she wanted to go on dates with other people. I mean, what if this guy went on dates with girls if they weren't on a show? Wouldn't she be pissed and dump him?

It doesn't make very much sense to me. Plus parents are already sticking their noses in our love lives enough, especially when they don't like the person, is it really worth it to get on MTV to let your parents choose people to go on dates with you? Yech.

Alright, alright, enough of that, I'm not going to stick to MTV-related shiznit, it's a god awful channel anyways.

On the baseball note, the Mets signed Damion Easley to fulfill that role Chris Woodward had last season. Woodward can't be all that upset, he got close to being on a World Series team and made little to no contribution to the team getting there. He seemed like a helluva nice guy though, so I hope he catches on somewhere.

There are also rumors that the Mets are looking to sign Alou. Besides the fact that he's played on average 110 games the last two seasons, that would be a good signing for the Mets, especially if they can dump Green's worthless butt, I don't care if the Mets need to cut him, but he needs to not take up a roster spot when the season begins.

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Metsgeek Post

A post I made on www.metsgeek.com

I too said wins and losses are overrated. I hear these talking heads like John F. Kruk saying “wins and losses are the most important stat for a pitcher.” WRONG. The most important stat for a TEAM is wins and losses.

But a pitcher can(especially in the AL) only contribute 50% of the win. All he can do is prevent runs as best as he can. If he gives 1 run and he loses, who does the fault go to? The offense. Who gets the negative mark statistically? Him, he gets an extra 1 in the loss column.

Wins and losses is a statistic that is no longer pertinent to the modern pitcher. As someone else pointed out, you pitch great for 6-7 innings and the next 2-3 guys have to get you the win, unlike before when pitchers threw CGs all the time.

Now wins and losses are taken out of the pitcher’s hand for almost 1/3 of the game. The offense might not show up, the defense might let you down(hey, if you give up 1 unearned run, you still get a L as the pitcher, not an UE-L), the relievers might blow the win.

So many other factors go into a pitcher’s wins and losses that today it is a statistic that talks more about luck than skill. It means you pitched well enough for 6-7 innings and you got some run support, the relievers held the lead, and the defense didn’t make too many errors, so that you were able to see a W go up next to your name after the game finishes.

Are wins and losses important as a pitching statistic? Sometimes. But more often than not, a pitcher’s luck, good or bad, makes his W-L record hard to quantify. A WHIP, an ERA, all these statistics aren’t perfect. If your defense has bad range, you give up more hits, leading to more “earned” runs and a higher WHIP.

No statistic, at least, the ones most people know about, looks at what the pitcher did, and quantifies it into his contribution to the game. Fielders make mistakes, or bail out pitchers with great plays, runners make boneheaded plays and get doubled off, etc etc. Even umpires miss calls.

But Wins and Losses, they’re out of the pitcher’s control for the most part, as soon as his team comes up to bat for the first time. The pitcher must depend on his team to score runs to win.

Some wins are earned by pitchers, carrying their teams moribund offenses, and some wins are gift-wrapped with 10 run explosions from the pitcher’s offenses. Some losses are earned when the pitcher gets lit up, but just as many as lost because the pitcher’s offense is on vacation, making sand angels.

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

John Kruk: Real Man of Genius

And John Kruk has actually said something intelligent on Baseball Tonight.

While John predicted 30 wins for Randy Johnson last season, he singlehandedly redeemed himself by rescuing a pathetic Baseball Tonight, and supporting Johan Santana as the best left-handed pitcher in the majors.

I have no idea how Steve Phillips decided that Cliff Lee was his pick. Maybe he looked at win totals and said, screw it, he's the bomb. I guess he ignored Cliff Lee's 1.22 WHIP. Well, as the GM of my favorite team, he often ignored a lot of things. How this man was kept on while the Mets let Bobby Valentine go is beyond me.

How this man even got a job in baseball is beyond me.
So after Steve Phillips picks Cliff Lee, Reynolds picks Randy Johnson,(unfortunately, this wasn't two years ago) and John Kruk rescues the show and picks Johan Santana.

Yes, Johan has had a couple of bad starts to begin the season, but he's the dominant left-hander in baseball, and should have back-to-back Cy Young awards on his mantle.

John Kruk saying something smart is like Hussein saying something compassionate.

Savor this moment John Kruk, savor it.