Gov'Nah.
Hughes is a superior prospect to Pelfrey according to many, so I will say Hughes > Pelfrey, maybe even a substantial difference. However, Cabrera was never a high-caliber prospect and I don't know if his bat can carry him as a corner outfielder.
We'll see if Cabrera can replicate his success, but I'm wary of a guy who posts a .751 OPS in his first full major league season and his stats in the minors showed no sort of ability to hit .751 at the major league level. The highest he hit at the Minor league level (in a decent sample size) was 779 in Tampa.
The problem isn't with his glove, FRAA rates Melky very well, but his bat is just not good enough to warrant a starting corner outfielder spot on the Yankees. The Yankees would be well suited to sell high on Melky, because he might fall back to Earth in 07.
Milledge is still a superior prospect to Cabrera. While he only hit .690 in his first taste of the Show, his minor league statistics show much more upside than Cabrera. Before Cabera's 2006 Norfolk stint, he showed no signs of having a major league caliber at-bat. Could Cabrera build on this success and be a legitimate starter in the majors? Of course. But I'm still skeptical of Cabrera's long term value, while I believe Milledge, if given enough time in the corner outfield, can be a solid player at the major league level, maybe even an all-star.
They're both around 22, so they're both young (Milledge is 8 months younger and will be 22 on 4/5), and people can argue about Milledge's mental makeup because he had troubles in the locker room versus Melky being a model citizen according to the media.
In conclusion, Milledge > Melky, and Hughes > Pelfrey. The reason I would trade Milledge is because the most value for him is playing him in CF, where he is best used. His lower SLG %(if the power never shows) will not hurt him as a CF, but would as a RF or LF. A common misconception is that it is easy to make a transition to a corner outfield slot from CF. Yes, you still have all the range that allowed you to play solid defense in CF, but in CF you can see the ball much better and judge it. You don't have to deal with the ball changing direction on you unexpectedly, because looking at the ball dead on you have a much easier time reacting to the ball changing direction. CF is the easiest position to play in the majors if you have the range for it. It's also easier on your knees, because the cuts are easier to make. You also don't have to deal with foul territory.
I believe the comparison of both pairs of prospects is a wash. It really depends on what the trading partner needs. Many teams in baseball crave a strong defense CF that can hit with an .800 OPS. Both pitchers are in the upper echelon of pitching prospects and both possess the upside of being a #1 and #2 in the major leagues, something every team in the league can use more of. While Hughes might be the best pitching prospect in baseball, the difference between he and Pelfrey is not so large that a team wouldn't love to have Pelfrey in their system.
With Melky and Milledge, it's also a matter of perception. Do you want the player who showed little to no Major League worthiness in the minors, then exploded in his Age 22 season at AAA(relative to his previous seasons) or do you want the guy who showed his worthiness of being a top prospect all throughout the minors and then struggled his first time up, playing a position he had never played before?
The arguments can be made that you want the sure thing with Melky over the potential of Milledge. It's all up to you.
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3 comments:
A good breakdown. But Pelfrey and Hughes both project to be potential frontline pitchers, with Hughes rated slightly higher. Wheras Milledge projects a potential All-Star, and Cabrera does not. I also disagree with the notion that Cabrera is more likely to be a productive major leaguer than Milledge.
I think it is more likely that last year was a fluke for Melky and Milledge is a productive major leaguer than the other way around.
Danny, I'm playing devil's advocate saying that it's a wash. I think the Mets pair is better. I'm just saying, you've seen one guy be a decent major leaguer(albeit for one year) and we haven't seen Milledge pull that off yet.
I have the utmost faith in Milledge and think he will be an outstanding major leaguer. I don't expect much from Melky.
I can see how someone could look at Milledge/Cabrera and decide that Melky is better because he had more success at the major league level last year.
But in determining values for trades, which is essentially this exercise, you don't only trade players based on production. You also trade them based on projection. And that is where Milledge blows Melky out of the water, because his physical tools are immense (particularly his bat speed) and his production has been consistent throughout his entire professional. The two of those together make for a very valuable trading chip. Now let's get to work on fixing the attitude (perception or real), and we have ourselves a really good shot at a very productive major league outfielder.
I know you know all of this and was being more of a Devil's Advocate. This is more for the Yankees fan out there who is reading this and is convinced that Melky is better than Milledge on the account of one fluky year.
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